How To Decode NFL Odds Before Placing Your Wagers

Start with the Basics

Before you throw down money on an NFL game, you need to understand one simple thing: odds are just a way of showing how likely something is to happen and how much you’ll get paid if it does.

There are three main types of odds you’ll see in football betting: point spreads, moneylines, and totals. Each one offers a different angle on the game and changes how you evaluate your bet.

Point spreads are about more than who wins they’re about by how much. The sportsbook gives the favorite a handicap, so both teams start on more equal footing. If the Chiefs are 6.5 against the Raiders, it means KC has to win by 7 or more for you to win that bet. Betting the underdog? They just have to lose by less than 7 (or win outright).

Moneylines are simpler: you’re picking who wins. No spread, no math. But the odds reflect risk. Betting on a big favorite pays less, while betting on an underdog offers a higher payout. A 200 favorite means you’d have to bet $200 to win $100. A +180 underdog would pay $180 on a $100 bet.

Totals (also called Over/Unders) focus on the combined points scored by both teams. If the total is set at 45.5, you’re betting on whether the final score will be over or under that. Doesn’t matter who wins just the score.

Odds like these shape your risk and potential reward. Learn what they’re saying, and you’ll stop guessing and start playing smarter.

Point Spreads: Leveling the Field

Point spreads are the great equalizer in NFL betting. They’re not meant to predict the actual score they’re there to make the betting interesting, even when one team is clearly better than the other. The favorite is assigned a number of points they need to win by (the spread), while the underdog is given those points as a head start.

So let’s say the Chiefs are 6.5 against the Raiders. That number 6.5 is the spread. If you bet on the Chiefs, they need to win by 7 or more for your bet to pay. If you back the Raiders, they can lose by up to 6 (or win outright), and you still win. The phrase “covering the spread” just means the team outperformed what the spread expected.

Example: In Week 7, suppose the Eagles are 3.5 against the Cowboys. The Eagles win 27 24 that’s only a 3 point win. They didn’t cover, so Cowboys bettors cash in despite the loss. This is why spreads matter more than who wins or loses.

Backing underdogs makes sense when you believe they’ll keep the game close, or if you think the favorite is a bit overrated coming in. Maybe the underdog’s defense matches up well. Or maybe the public is hot on the favorite, overtipping the line. When betting favorites, you need confidence they’ll not only win but dominate.

Bottom line: spreads are less about picking winners, and more about spotting value in how the game might actually unfold.

Moneylines: Straight Up Winners

Moneyline betting skips the point spread. Your job is simple: pick who wins, nothing else. It’s clean, but not always easy.

In moneyline odds, numbers reflect probability and payout. A negative number (like 150) means that team is the favorite. You’d need to bet $150 to win $100. A positive number (like +130) signals an underdog. Bet $100 and you’ll pocket $130 if they win. The bigger the difference between the teams, the steeper the odds gap.

So why do favorites cost more? Because they’re expected to win. The book balances risk based on probability. Underdogs pay more because they’re riskier picks but if you call the upset, you get rewarded. Moneylines can be sharp tools when you’re confident in a matchup, but they demand clarity. No spreads. Just win. Or lose. That’s it.

Totals (Over/Unders): Betting on the Score

What Are Totals?

Totals, also known as over/under bets, focus on the combined score of both teams in a given NFL game. Instead of picking a winner, you’re betting on whether the total points scored will be more or less than a number set by the bookmaker.
Example: If the total is set at 47.5 and the final score is 27 24, the total is 51 the “over” wins.
This bet ignores who wins or loses, which can be helpful in unpredictable matchups.

How Are Totals Set?

Bookmakers set totals based on a mix of data and context, including:
Historical scoring trends
Offensive/defensive matchups
Weather conditions
Recent injuries to key players or changes in lineups

Lines usually open early in the week and may shift based on betting volume or breaking news.

Over or Under: Making the Decision

Choosing whether to bet the over or under depends on your analysis of how the game will play out:
Lean Over when both teams have high powered offenses or weak defenses.
Lean Under when defenses dominate or when weather conditions (like rain or wind) could limit scoring.
Consider recent game trends: Are teams starting slow? Are they lighting up the scoreboard?

When Totals Make More Sense Than Picking a Side

There are scenarios where betting the total is smarter than betting on a team:
In evenly matched games where picking a winner is tough
When a game script is predictable (e.g., defensive battle or shootout)
If injuries or weather drastically alter expected performance

Tip: Totals are especially useful when public opinion heavily influences a spread, but the game pace or scoring trend tells a different story.

Understanding how and when to use totals gives you another strategic option that’s often overlooked but can add real value to your betting approach.

Combos and Props: Beyond the Basics

Teasers, parlays, and prop bets are where things get interesting and risky. These are the kinds of bets that can offer big payouts but come with strings attached. Let’s keep it real: they’re not for beginners chasing a quick win.

Teasers let you adjust point spreads in your favor across multiple games, but the trade off is a lower potential payout. They’re best used when you have strong opinions on several games but want to play it safer than a standard parlay. Parlays, on the other hand, bundle multiple bets into one ticket. Win every single leg and you cash in big. Miss just one, and it’s a bust. They’re high risk, high reward and often more luck than strategy.

Prop bets are wagers on specific outcomes within a game: first touchdown scorer, total rushing yards, or even coin toss results. These are great for adding layers to games you’re already watching, but it’s easy to go overboard. Keep your logic in the game, not your heart.

Before placing any of these bet types, run the math. What’s the implied probability? What needs to happen for you to win? And what happens if just one thing goes sideways? Understanding your win conditions is non negotiable.

Emotional betting is where trouble starts. Long shots are tempting, especially when the payout looks sweet. But don’t let a 12 leg parlay distract you from smarter plays. Stick to bets where you’ve done your homework, and if you’re tossing a flier, keep it small. You’re not betting for dopamine you’re betting for the long haul.

Sharpening Your Edge

Knowing how to read odds is just the first step. The next level is learning to spot value before the books adjust or before the public catches on. That means tracking line movement like a hawk. When a point spread or total shifts noticeably, it’s rarely random. Odds move because of money. Watching how lines open, and how they move heading into Sunday, can give you a read on where sharp (professional) bettors are putting their cash.

Speaking of which understanding the difference between public betting and sharp money is essential. Public bets tend to follow hype: big teams, recent wins, star players. Sharp money is less interested in headlines and more focused on statistical value. When most of the public is backing one side, but the line moves the opposite way, that’s likely sharp money doing the talking. Follow that, not the noise.

Then there’s the stuff the algorithms don’t catch: injury reports, weather updates, coaching tendencies, and travel schedules. These context clues can tip the scales. A QB with a sore knee in freezing temps. A West Coast team flying East. A missing linebacker against a top rushing offense. Little things matter, and they don’t always factor into the odds early.

If you want to go deeper into how to read movement trends, spot trap lines, and separate signal from steam take a look at our full NFL odds mastery guide.

Final Moves Before You Bet

Before you lock in any wager, slow down and run through the essentials. Smart betting isn’t impulsive it’s planned. Here’s a simple checklist:
Know the bet type and your potential payout.
Confirm team injuries, weather, and late breaking updates.
Compare lines across at least two sportsbooks.
Be clear if you’re betting for value or emotion and walk away if it’s the latter.

Next up: bankroll management. This isn’t sexy, but it’s everything. Set aside an amount you’re fine losing that’s your total bankroll. Most smart bettors risk 1 3% of it per wager. No chasing losses, no doubling down after a tough Sunday. Protect the long game.

And mindset? That matters too. You’re not trying to strike it rich on one miracle parlay. You’re looking for small wins stacked over time. Think like a portfolio manager, not a lottery player.

Need more structure? Revisit our full NFL odds mastery guide for a no fluff walkthrough from start to finish.